In 2015, Germany faced one of the most significant demographic shifts in its modern history.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s famous declaration of “We can do this” opened the doors to over 1.1 million asylum seekers and migrants, primarily from war-torn regions like Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq, as well as the Balkans.
This influx, often referred to as the “migrant crisis,” was hailed by some as a humanitarian triumph.
However, official crime statistics from the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) paint a starkly different picture: a dramatic rise in crimes involving migrants as suspects, even as overall crime rates in Germany remained relatively stable or slightly declined.
While the vast majority of these newcomers committed no offenses, the data reveals a disproportionate impact on certain crime categories, raising serious questions about integration, public safety, and the long-term consequences of unchecked mass migration.
This article examines the key findings from the BKA’s 2015 report on “Crime in the Context of Immigration,” highlighting the statistics that underscore the challenges of Merkel’s policy.
The Scale of the Influx and Its Immediate Impact
Germany registered approximately 890,000 migrants in 2015 under categories like asylum seekers, tolerated stays, quota refugees, and unauthorized residents—collectively termed “immigrants in the asylum context” by the BKA.
This represented a staggering 357% increase from 2014.
Many were young males: 69% of asylum applicants were male, 31% were minors, and 89% were under 40 years old.
These demographics aligned closely with those of suspects in the crime data, where 86% were male and 88% under 40.
According to the BKA, crimes involving at least one such immigrant suspect totaled 206,201 in 2015 (excluding violations of foreign law, such as immigration offenses).
This marked a 79% increase from 115,011 in 2014, accounting for 6.5% of all solved crimes in Germany that year.
Meanwhile, the total number of solved crimes nationwide actually decreased by 0.6% to 3,163,311.
Immigrant suspects in this category numbered 114,238, up 91% from 59,912 the previous year, representing 6% of all suspects (from a total of around 2 million suspects, which remained stable).
Over the five years from 2011 to 2015, crimes linked to these immigrants skyrocketed by about 238%, from 61,157 to 206,201.
This surge was directly tied to the migrant wave.
Breakdown of Crime Types: From Property Theft to Violent Offenses
The BKA data breaks down offenses into categories, revealing patterns that disproportionately affected certain areas.
- Property Crimes (Theft): The largest category, with 83,496 incidents involving these immigrant suspects—a 90% jump from 2014.
This accounted for 12.5% of all thefts in Germany, up from 6.7% the prior year.
Shoplifting dominated, making up 67% of these cases and surging 106%.
- Fraud and Forgery: 52,055 crimes, up 63%, representing 5.9% of all such offenses.
Fare evasion (e.g., on public transport) comprised two-thirds of fraud cases.
- Violent Crimes: A concerning 35,723 offenses against life, bodily harm, and personal freedom, up 93% from 2014 and comprising 5.4% of all violent crimes (up from 2.8%).
This included:
- Bodily harm: 26,694 cases.
- Robbery and extortion: 13,373 cases.
- Crimes against life (e.g., attempted manslaughter): 233 cases, up 91%.
- Sexual offenses: 1,683 incidents, up 77%, including 835 rapes or sexual assaults under violence or duress, and 493 child pornography cases.
These made up 5% of all sexual crimes.
- Drug Offenses: 13,060 cases, up 63%, mostly possession or use (61%), with 5% of all drug crimes.
- Other Crimes: 18,893 incidents, up 73%, including property damage, insults, and breaches of peace (over 70% of this category).
Organized crime also spiked, with people smuggling operations increasing by 31% to 46 cases, often involving Syrian or Turkish perpetrators targeting fellow migrants en route to Germany or Scandinavia.
Notably, 33% of these immigrant suspects were repeat offenders, responsible for about 70% of the crimes.
Origins varied: While Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis made up 64% of asylum seekers, they were only 17% of suspects.
In contrast, Balkan migrants (13% of seekers) were 27% of suspects, with massive increases like 627% for Albanians and 253% for Kosovars.
The Legacy of Merkel’s Migrant Crisis
The 2015 statistics highlight the immediate strains of mass migration: a sharp uptick in specific crimes amid a policy that prioritized humanitarian intake over rigorous screening and integration.
Critics argue this contributed to social tensions, rising far-right sentiments, and policy reversals in later years.
While not all migrants were involved, the data shows a clear correlation between the influx and elevated suspect rates in key categories.
As Germany continues to grapple with migration, these figures serve as a cautionary tale.
Effective policies must balance compassion with security, ensuring that “We can do this” doesn’t come at the expense of public safety.
(Sources: Official BKA reports and analyses from 2015; all data is publicly available and reflects solved cases only.)